Source: China National Chemical Manufacturing Network Time: 2020-01-14
The prosperity of China's polyester PET industry has declined in 2019. Not only has the market price dropped to a relatively low level, but corporate profitability has also shrunk significantly. At present, the overall economic situation at home and abroad is still complex and severe. The global economic growth has slowed down. The Sino-U.S. trade war has a large number of variables. The fluctuations in international crude oil prices have intensified. Macro-level changes have a greater impact on the polyester PET market. The market trend of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol is still the dominant factor in the trend of polyester PET market. With the slowdown in the growth of textile and beverage demand, the domestic polyester PET market demand began to weaken, so polyester PET production capacity began to saturate. To ease the greater domestic sales pressure, companies began to actively explore overseas markets, polyester PET export volume increased significantly. As the upstream PX and raw material PTA enter the peak of capacity expansion, the supply pattern of polyester raw materials will undergo major changes, and the growth rate of polyester production capacity will begin to slow down. The overall pattern of the polyester industry chain in the future may undergo major changes.
1. The decline of polyester raw materials suppresses the prices of polyester PET market to record lows
The leading factor in the polyester PET market this year is still the raw material side. The polyester raw material PTA market is affected by high inventory and sufficient supply, the market price continues to fall, the raw material ethylene glycol market has also fallen to a new low in recent years, and the cost side has been depressed. The polyester PET market has been in decline since April. The trend is that market prices have fallen below the two-year low. Downstream demand continues to be weak, the market does not have a peak season, and the off-season is weaker. Weak demand has put the market under long-term pressure. Under the pressure of low prices, the production and operation of polyester PET companies are worrying, and the production profits of the companies have been low. The production profit of polyester PET has remained near the profit and loss line for a long time. Low prices add to low profits, and the polyester PET industry has entered a period of low development.
2. New production capacity slows down and industry development enters a new platform period
After the outbreak of polyester production capacity last year, the growth rate of polyester production capacity has slowed down significantly this year. The domestic polyester production capacity has returned to a slow development track. The industry has experienced a crisis of surplus again. 4.8%. The new production capacity of polyester chips is only 520,000 tons, and the new production capacity of bottle chips is 350,000 tons. The new production capacity of the polyester industry is mostly concentrated in the field of polyester fibers. This year, the production capacity of polyester fibers has increased by 3.17 million tons, of which differentiation and functionalization The proportion of high-end polyester products has gradually increased, and the development of polyester fiber production capacity has begun to enter a new growth cycle. From the previous quantitative development, it has begun to focus on qualitative leap. Similarly, the polyester PET industry should also reposition its new development direction. Under such a background, the integration of refining and chemical industry, the precise matching of production capacity and market, the improvement of equipment operation level, and the application of new technologies will help domestic enterprises in the fierce Have a place in the competition.
3. Great increase in exports to ease domestic sales pressure
Under the background of overcapacity development of polyester PET industry, its export market began to grow rapidly. With the increase in the base of domestic bottle-grade PET production capacity, the domestic production capacity has exceeded 10 million tons since 2018. In order to alleviate the greater domestic sales pressure, the domestic bottle-grade PET export volume began to increase substantially this year. From January to November 2019, the export of bottle-grade PET was 2.723 million tons, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year, accounting for 35% of domestic production. Market share.
4. Anti-dumping has followed one after another
As my country's largest producer of polyester PET, with the continuous expansion of the export market, international trade disputes have gradually increased. Due to the price advantage of domestic products, foreign anti-dumping investigations of domestic polyester PET have gradually increased. In September 2017, Japan began to impose anti-dumping duties on domestic polyester PET. The Japanese market was once the largest exporter of domestic polyester PET. This year, the export market began to focus on India, and India also started an anti-dumping investigation on polyester PET originating in China in October. South Africa and Argentina made a final ruling on anti-dumping review of China-related polyester PET.
On October 1, 2019, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India issued an announcement that it initiated an anti-dumping investigation on polyethylene terephthalate resin (intrinsic viscosity ≥ 0.72 deciliter/gram) (PET) originating or imported from China . The products involved in this case do not include recycled PET resin. The case mainly involved products under the Indian customs codes 39076100 and 39076910 (before February 2, 2017, the Indian customs codes of the products involved were 39076010 and 39076020). The dumping investigation period of this case is September 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019 (9 months), and the damage investigation period is 2016 to 2017, 2017 to 2018, 2018 to 2019 and the dumping investigation period.
It is reported that South Africa plans to impose a temporary anti-dumping tariff of 22.90% on polyester PET (tariff number 3907.6) imported from mainland China from the date of the announcement (August 2) to February 2, 2020.
On October 22, 2019, the Argentine Ministry of Production and Labor issued Resolution No. 1103 in the Official Gazette of Argentina to make a final anti-dumping sunset review on polyethylene terephthalate originating in mainland China, South Korea and India: Continue to maintain the anti-dumping measures determined by Resolution No. 500 of September 27, 2017, and levy anti-dumping duties of 16%, 17.61%, and 12% on the products involved in China, South Korea, and India, respectively; maintain No. 691 of October 24, 2013 resolution. The customs code of the SADC is 3907.60.00. The resolution takes effect from the date of promulgation and is valid for three years.
5. Bottle flakes futures listed on the agenda Polyester industry chain futures form a plate effect
In 2019, Zhengshang began to vigorously promote the research and development and listing of polyester staple fiber, bottle flakes, PX and other industrial chain varieties, create a futures variety segment of the polyester industrial chain, and help the stable operation of the polyester industry. In August this year, in Jiaxing, Zhengshang and representatives of polyester bottle flake production enterprises conducted a preliminary demonstration on the listing of bottle flake futures, and next year will gradually promote the listing of bottle flake futures. In June, the \"Announcement Concerning the Recruitment of Polyester Staple Fiber Futures Delivery Brands\" issued by Zheng Shang caused widespread repercussions in the polyester market, and the preparations for the listing of staple fiber futures were put on the agenda.
For the polyester industry, although there are currently two futures varieties of PTA and ethylene glycol in the industry chain, PTA and ethylene glycol futures can be used to lock in the cost of polyester raw materials, but the sales of downstream filament and staple fiber products are mostly from stock Mainly, the price goes with the market, and it still cannot meet the various needs of industrial customers. For the PTA industry chain, if the futures varieties such as staple fiber, bottle flakes, and PX can be listed, it is conducive to the upstream of the PTA industry chain and the groups close to the terminal to participate in the futures market more widely. It will expand the depth and breadth of serving entity enterprises, improve the efficiency of enterprises in using futures tools, and can also more widely attract institutions to allocate more resources and funds on the PTA industry chain, which will be more active in the futures varieties of PTA industry chain. The promotion effect allows enterprises to have more financial instruments to avoid the risk of market volatility.
6. Reducing plastic waste Recycled plastic bottles will become a new trend
Plastic pollution is a global problem, and it is urgent to solve the problem of plastic pollution. Water bottles made of PET are still the most recyclable products on the planet, and the demand for recycled PET (rPET) continues to rise.
In January this year, the UK's first 100% plastic bottle made of recycled plastic was put on sale. Many beverage manufacturers have promised to increase the proportion of recycled plastic used in the production of plastic bottles to protect the environment and reduce plastic pollution.
In July this year, Coca-Cola Amatil, Coca-Cola's Australian bottling company, has produced carbonated soft drink bottles made of 100% recyclable plastics, a move that has been called a \"significant progress\" towards sustainable development. It is reported that all disposable plastic bottles produced by Coca-Cola Amatil in Australia will be converted into plastic bottles made of 100% renewable materials by the end of 2019. Earlier this year, the bottling company announced that by 2020, 70% of its plastic bottles used in Australia will be made of recyclable plastics, reducing the amount of new plastic materials by about 10,000 tons per year.
According to the EU's goal, by 2030, the EU's plastic bottles will contain at least 30% recyclable ingredients. EU member states also agreed to achieve 90% recycling of plastic bottles by 2029.
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