Light crude oil demand increases prices are bullish

Source: China Chemical Industry News Time: 2020-01-06

The new International Maritime Organization (IMO) ship fuel sulphur limit regulations will be implemented on January 1, and global oil and shipping will usher in major changes.

On December 19 last year, the five countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, namely Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Armenia, announced that they would postpone the implementation of the new regulations for four years. Countries such as India, Indonesia, and the Philippines have also publicly expressed reservations about implementing the new regulations on time and will implement them in accordance with their own policies. However, as a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for maritime navigation safety and prevention of marine pollution caused by ships, the IMO with 174 member states has stated many times that the sulfur restriction order will not be delayed.

IMO regulations, from January 1st, the global ship sulfur content will be reduced from 3.5% to 0.5%, in order to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions, and recommended three response plans: First, switch to marine gasoline or low sulfur fuel; Continue to use high-sulfur fuel oil and increase exhaust gas desulfurization devices; third, switch to LNG or other alternative fuels. China Classification Society said that from the initial investment cost, LNG and other alternative fuel solutions are the highest, and from the operating cost, low-sulfur fuel oil solutions are the highest.

According to Wood Mackenzie data, global shipping currently consumes about 3.5 million barrels per day of high sulfur fuel. After the implementation of the new IMO regulations, the demand for high-sulfur fuel oil will be reduced to about 1.3 million barrels/day. The demand for marine gasoline will reach 1 million barrels/day this year, and it will remain at 2.4 million barrels/day in the medium term. In the long run, the new IMO regulations will boost the annual demand for marine LNG by 23%, and will reach 22 million tons by 2030.

Currently, more than 90% of global trade is carried out by sea, and the shipping industry accounts for about 5% of the total global oil demand. The new IMO regulations will bring about a huge change in the low-sulfur fuel market. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that the global increase in demand for light crude oil in 2020 will increase the price of light crude oil by $2 per barrel. But as the market adjusts, the price effect will gradually disappear. The EIA estimates that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2020 will be US$60.51 per barrel, and the average price in 2018 will be US$71.19 per barrel.

In response to rising fuel costs, major shipping companies such as Hapag-Lloyd, German Frontier Airlines, French CMA, and Maersk have launched their own IMO2020 fuel transition fees.