Source: Sinochem New Network Time: 2020-02-05
At present, the headlines of major media see the words of fighting the epidemic, refueling in Wuhan and refueling in China! Even the people on the street are pummeled, all attributable to the new coronavirus pneumonia that originated and broke out in Wuhan.
At 8.30pm local time on January 30th, local time, World Health Organization Director General Tan Desai announced in Geneva that China's new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has constituted an \"emergency public health event of international concern\" (PHEIC). The decision is valid for three months. If there is a major change in the epidemic situation, the Director-General has the right to convene the meeting early to lift the emergency. According to the International Health Regulations, \"Public health emergencies of international concern\" refers to the unusual public health risks through other countries that pose a public health risk to other countries and may require coordinated international response measures event.\"
Factors such as delays in the resumption of work in many places and restricted transportation at high-speed intersections have caused rapid changes in the domestic macroeconomic and market environment, and petrochemical products are under pressure. What about the market outlook for methanol and its industrial chain products?
Methanol: the current transportation is the first resistance, the import situation remains to be observed
For the domestic market, out of consideration for the control of the spread of the epidemic, many provinces and cities have suspended inter-provincial shuttle passenger transport, and some local cities have adopted local restrictions or closures on highways. For chemical products, especially those that existed before Under the pressure of high transportation costs, transportation vehicles are also affected to a certain extent. First of all, China's current supply and demand pattern. The main production area in the methanol inland is the northwest region, and the downstream consumption areas are mainly in central and northern China. At present, long-distance and long-distance Trans-provincial transportation is more difficult, and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong and other places have issued notices of delayed resumption of work, requiring all types of enterprises not to resume work before 24:00 on February 9, which may lead to weakening of the main downstream demand side; second In terms of quantity, the short-term is still in the postponement phase of the Spring Festival holiday, there are relatively few logistics vehicles, and some are still used for local emergency supplies transportation. The overall transportation situation is not very ideal. Coupled with the epidemic's control of the movement of people, logistics is greatly affected, especially for trucking, and the supply of goods is backlogged to both ends (upstream raw materials and downstream products), and can not get in and out. In terms of ports, although WHO does not recommend any country or any company to take travel or trade restrictions on China, and the import trade is subject to macroeconomic impacts or is relatively limited, as far as the market is concerned, many provinces and cities in East China and South China have determined to delay the resumption of work, or It will have a certain impact on the amount of methanol imported by port enterprises. For the port delivery warehouse area, with the delay of the resumption of work, the delivery time will be delayed. The specific situation remains to be seen.
Acetic acid: exports may be restricted, short-term negative effects will increase
As the world's largest producer of acetic acid, China can not only meet its own needs, but also export a considerable amount. According to statistics, the annual export volume of acetic acid in 2019 accounts for about 6.5% of the total output, which is the normal level of acetic acid export volume. Once the accidental parking gap is obvious abroad, the export of acetic acid is far greater than this proportion. China has officially become a global \"endemic area\", and export commodities including acetic acid will be greatly affected in the short term. At a micro level, the epidemic is more contagious, and the factors of the Spring Festival are superimposed, which has a greater impact on the service industry and the resumption of business. Many provinces and cities have clearly delayed the time for resumption of business and the stagnation of logistics. Importers will also judge that the reduction in China's domestic demand will cause the price of acetic acid to decline based on the epidemic situation, thereby delaying purchases. Comprehensive analysis shows that the negative impact of the epidemic on domestic acetic acid exports, whether in the macro or micro aspects, may continue to increase in the short term.
Methane chloride: overall weakness, lowering the insured value or a later trend
As far as the domestic dichloromethane market is concerned, on the one hand, transportation is restricted in many places, and hazardous chemicals are strictly prohibited on high speeds. The logistics transportation that has been restricted during the Spring Festival continues to be restricted, resulting in poor shipments by some domestic enterprises. The price trend fell under the pressure of shipping. In addition, from the perspective of market supply and demand, although some enterprises had a good stocking situation before the year, with the development of the epidemic, the stock level of methylene chloride enterprises increased from the previous year. It is understood that some methylene chloride enterprises have now reduced their burden. At the same time, the downstream construction is not optimistic, and some chlor-alkali enterprises also have negative burdens. At present, domestic dichloromethane is in a deep stalemate, and the market is difficult to make a substantial breakthrough. The main manufacturer's ex-factory price of Shandong Jinling loose water is about 2330 yuan/ton. Although the market supply has dropped significantly, the downstream factories have also stopped production and it is obvious that the contradiction between market supply and demand is difficult to alleviate. It will take some time for the epidemic to ease, and during this period it may continue to have a negative impact on logistics and transportation. Overall, the dichloromethane market has short-term news from the periphery and its own fundamentals. At that time, it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the further development of the epidemic and its impact on the overall industrial chain.
Formaldehyde: start of work continues to be limited, difficult to change in the short term
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the time for market purchases and sales was gradually shortened. Although the port methanol market was boosted by futures, some formaldehyde in East China also followed up, but the transaction was difficult to follow up. The biggest constraint in the market was still on the demand side. It is difficult to have strong support for actual transactions, and the domestic formaldehyde market is upside down. However, due to the current epidemic situation, the timing of the resumption of downstream board factories has not yet been determined, but the forecast is basically more than the start of the first month after the fifteenth month, and the formaldehyde plant also shows signs of slow rework. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will continue to slump before the Lantern Festival.
Ethanol: sought-after alcohol, inflection point ethanol
According to medical experts, ether and 75% ethanol can effectively inactivate new coronavirus. As soon as this news came out, the demand for 75% alcohol in the market soared, and some of them were out of stock. At the same time, because wine companies used 95% of edible alcohol with distilled water to prepare 75% of sterilizing alcohol, the low supply of ethanol The market has further aggravated the tight supply situation, which has caused partial price surges. So what will happen to the market after the Spring Festival holiday?
The tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate. Some enterprises shut down before the holiday, and the normal production of wine companies during the Spring Festival considers the slow recovery of demand after the holiday. Most of them make storage before the holiday, so that the current market inventory is not high, and the epidemic situation continues to be affected during the Spring Festival. Demand has soared. Although most wine companies have reworked ahead of schedule to arrange delivery, the tight supply in the market is an indisputable fact. The impact of the epidemic is difficult to completely eliminate in a short period of time, and the demand for 75% alcohol remains high, which has a greater effect on the market. Logistics is still slow. Since entering the winter, there are many vehicles in the market, and it is difficult to find the problem. The transportation of north alcohol to the south is slow. During the holiday, wine companies have organized employees to work overtime to produce disinfectant alcohol to ensure market supply. There is still a slow logistics phenomenon, resulting in limited local supply.
Affected by the surge in demand for disinfecting alcohol, ethanol markets in various regions have increased in different cities. For example, on February 5, Henan Mengzhou Houyuan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. 180,000 tons/year corn alcohol installation was normal. General grade alcohol is quoted at 6,450 yuan/ton including tax, and superior grade alcohol is offered at 6,550 yuan/ton including tax. Shandong Guanxian Xinrui Group's 80,000-ton/year edible wheat alcohol installation is fully loaded. The 95% alcohol general-grade foreign quotation is 6400 yuan/ton including tax self-raising, and the premium-grade external quotation is 6500 yuan/ton including tax self-raising, both of which are more than 800 yuan higher than the previous year. But the epidemic will eventually pass, except for disinfection alcohol, other downstream demand is still weak, and the market will still return to rationality.
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