Views: 6 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2020-02-07 Origin: Site
Source: Economic Reference News Time: 2020-02-04
The United Kingdom has officially \"Brexit\" and entered the transition period, which will end on December 31, 2020. Experts believe that in less than a year, Britain will have great challenges and uncertainties in reaching trade agreements with major trading partners such as the European Union and the United States.
With the EU, experts predict that Britain and Europe are expected to reach a basic free trade agreement involving zero tariffs and quotas for goods by the end of the year.
Amar Breckenridge, an expert on international trade policy at the British Economic Frontier Consulting Company, believes that the goal of the negotiations between the UK and the EU before the end of the year will be to reach a basic free trade agreement that will give the other party tariff-free and quota-free market access, Covers customs measures, rules of origin, etc.
He believes that in addition to the basic free trade agreement, Britain and Europe also need to resolve other more complex issues through agreements and other forms. The two sides have major differences in fisheries and financial services, and the possibility of reaching a comprehensive trade agreement within a limited time is low.
Sam Lowe, a senior researcher at the European Reform Center, believes that it is possible for the UK and EU to reach a free trade agreement by the end of the year, but the UK may face a series of prerequisites proposed by the EU, including allowing the EU to enter its fishing waters, promising not to reduce the environment Labor standards and compliance with national assistance laws.
In addition to the UK-Europe trade negotiations, during the \"Brexit\" transition period, the United Kingdom as a member of the European Union enjoys free trade arrangements with Canada, Japan and other countries also need to be signed, otherwise trade with these countries will face \"No agreement\" status.
Breckenridge believes that the \"continuation\" of free trade agreements with Canada, Japan and other trading partners is a top priority. He said that the challenge of \"continuity\" in trade negotiations is that these trading partners lack the motivation to start negotiations with the UK immediately. Some trading partners may decide the terms of negotiation with the UK based on the results of the UK-EU trade negotiations.
At the same time, experts predict that Britain will simultaneously advance trade negotiations with the United States, Australia, New Zealand and other countries, of which Britain-US trade negotiations are the top priority.
Breckenridge believes that, given that the Anglo-American trade agreement will place high demands on the British negotiating ability, it is unlikely that the two countries will reach an agreement by the end of the year. He believes that the two sides may achieve the goals of mutual recognition of service industry standards, investment promotion and business facilitation measures through political statements and other forms.
Lowe is also not optimistic about the prospects of the UK-US trade negotiations. He pointed out that the US government's trade policy is difficult to predict, and the US may also try to influence the UK-EU trade negotiations.