Asian soda market pressure

Source: China National Chemical News July 11, 2019

The soda ash market in Asia is expected to continue to be dragged down by China's ample supply, and the outlook is still not optimistic. In July, the quotation of heavy soda ash fell to US$240/ton (FOB, China), while the quotation of light soda ash was US$230-235/ton, which was about US$20/ton lower than the price shipped in June. Although the price of soda ash in Asia has fallen to its lowest point since February and March 2018, market sentiment is still sluggish and liquidity is still weak.

After the shutdown and overhaul work of the device is completed, China's soda ash production is continuously increasing. Tangshan Sanyou Chemical's 3.3 million ton/year soda ash plant will increase its operating rate this month to achieve full production. Previously, due to maintenance work, the plant reduced production for two consecutive months. In addition, Shandong Haihua will increase production in July. Lianyungang Alkali Industry Co., Ltd. 1.3 million tons/year soda ash plant will be at full capacity in September this year. Since May 23, a production line of the plant has been shut down for maintenance. The plant's operating rate is currently at 70%.

On the demand side, affected by downstream plant shutdowns and maintenance in the third quarter, demand for heavy soda ash from the downstream glass industry in Asia is weak. In Southeast Asia, buyers are still satisfied with the contract supply of ocean-going heavy soda ash, and the delivery price in the third quarter is about US$255~260/ton (CFR, Southeast Asia). At the same time, weak export-dependent economic data from South Korea have dampened market sentiment. The Turkish soda ash that was previously booked at a low price of 250-255 US dollars/ton (CFR, South Korea) arrived in South Korea, further prompting Korean soda ash importers to carefully order products imported from China. This demand situation compared with the supply situation, the pressure of the Asian soda market has increased dramatically.

According to data from An Xunsi, in the week ending July 3, the price of heavy soda ash in the Northeast Asian market was 250-260 USD/ton (CFR, Northeast Asia), which was down by 5 USD from the previous month; ~260 USD/ton (CFR, Southeast Asia), relatively stable.